Thursday, 14 October 2010

US Initial Claims

The weekly number is out again, beating expectations and still standing at high levels (462K).

Even though the number is way off the highs, what is interesting is the fact that initial claims are still standing at high levels compared to the past. The historic average for times of expansion and recession is standing at 364K and 369K respectively; hence a lot of work needs to be done for the current number to drop 100K and stabilize around or lower its historic average.

The economy came out of recession in June 2009 and the massive liquidity injection into the system does not seem to have the expected impact on people seeking unemployment insurance. It remains to be seen how the QE II will affect unemployment in the coming months.

Could this time be different? Or are we going to experience a similar situation of back to back recessions like in the early 1980s?

Click Chart to Enlarge

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