Going back to January 2010 [ number (1) on the chart] one can see that, after hoovering around the 18 level, VIX eventually broke out and the market sold off, giving back around 100pts. Next time around late April 2010 once VIX traded higher than the 18 level [number (2) on the chart] the sell off commenced and was good for 200 pts.
Yesterday, VIX tested the 18 support level. After trading in a descending wedge for the last 3 months and a fake break down, it looks like VIX wants to resolve to the upside.
TMN will regard the move as confirmed as soon as VIX closes above the middle BB and and a break out from the descending wedge has been achieved.
Please click on the chart to enlarge
The BKX has been on a declining path over the last week and is sitting right on its 50 day moving average.
Additionally, we have a daily close near the 50% fib. level between the July 2009 bottom and the April 2010 top. The RSI has turned down and is below 50. MACD is rolling over and momentum is close to failure and a drop below zero.
Caution: as we are dealing with strong forces that have tried everything so far to avoid this move to unfold, TMN will use wide stops and allow until early next week for the move to materialize.
Please click on the chart to enlarge
very good, thank you for sharing what you see, and your trading ideas about how to use the stops etc. This was helpful to me, I had not looked at these things. Many thanks again.
ReplyDeleteMost welcome.
ReplyDeletenice blog tmn keep it up
ReplyDeletewill do. Thank you!
ReplyDeleteblast off to continue......675 ONO...snort
ReplyDeletevix going to 8.....675 ONO
ReplyDeleteHey Don, how are you doing?
ReplyDeleteDid that painting of Corfu have any success?
AHHH...MY favorite Greek of all time.......lol....actually i took it to my home....my wife liked it......btw its amusing watching people flail around in this market as it goes north in a big way.....675ONO......snort
ReplyDeleteseems like most forgot about the coming GM ipo.....if you dont thing the boys arent gonna take this up big to get enthusiasm goin so they can sell it ur missin da boat.....675 ONO.. snort
ReplyDelete12.5pts only and counting for your 8 VIX level :-)
ReplyDeleteI am glad your wife liked it.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should take some profit from your 675 trade and take her on holidays to Corfu; it s a beautiful island.
so ive been told.......by my greek customers
ReplyDeleteDon't really see the significance of 50% Fib level. This acts more as support rather than resistance at this point
ReplyDeletei agree with you, it is support that needs to get taken out if one is looking for more downside. on friday bkx closed below that lvl. one step at a time...
ReplyDelete