Friday, 3 December 2010

Quick note on NFP and recessions since 1950

TMN has quickly checked how well the 6 month percentage change of Non-Farm Payrolls can capture/signal whether the US economy is about to enter in recession. The chart is self-explanatory where the shaded bars denote the US economic recessions and the black line is the 6 month percent change of NFP.

Looking at the chart, TMN would like to point out the abysmal effect of QEI on the employment situation. What remains to be seen is how the QEII will affect the employment situation. Is this time going to be different? TMN believes that the employment situation is not going to improve anytime soon and will rather deteriorate going forward.

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