The Greek stock market index has been consolidating on low levels for a while and now looks ready for the final push into the land of darkness. TMN is expecting a hefty decline that will probably last into mid 2011. It is TMN's deepest conviction that it would have been best for Greece to default long time ago and default within the next 6 months remains TMN's base case scenario for Greece. German officials have spent most of last week managing market expectations in anticipation of what's coming next.
Of course it is not only Greece that is in trouble, Spain is where the big trouble will come from, trouble that has a good chance to impact availability of finance across Latin America severely. The IBEX chart below looks clearly broken.